Estimation of risk factors for COVID-19 mortality

China CDC (Center for Disease Control and Prevention) has reported results of a descriptive exploratory analysis of all cases diagnosed until the 11th February 2020, presenting the epidemiologic curves and geo-temporal spread of COVID-19 along with case fatality rate according to some baseline characteristics, such as age, gender and several well-established high prevalence comorbidities.

Despite this, a new study intends to increase even further the predictive value of that manuscript by presenting the Odds Ratio (OR) for mortality due to COVID-19 adjusted for the presence of those comorbidities and baseline characteristics such as age and gender.

Besides, authors presented a way to determine the risk of each particular patient, given his characteristics. They found that age is the variable that presents higher risk of COVID-19 mortality, where 60 or older patients have the higger OR. Regarding comorbidities, cardiovascular disease appears to be the riskiest, along with Diabetes Mellitus (DM), chronic respiratory disease and hypertension. Males are more likely to die from COVID-19.

A final point of utmost importance: authors point their work could be used to determine the probability of dying from COVID-19 given the age interval, the gender and comorbidity of a particular patient ―the objective and quantitative risk measurement of each patient or population is paramount to help managing patients segments in health facilities as well as to assist in the determination of public health policies―. However, some limitations such as the lack of information about the correct prevalence of gender per age or about comorbidities per age and gender or the assumption of independence between risk factors are expected to have a small impact on results.

Link to the paper: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.24.20027268

Editorial Disclaimer: information published during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic may be updated frequently to reflect the dynamic nature of current understanding.

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