Estimation of the final size of the COVID-19 epidemic

One of the common questions regarding an epidemic is its final size. To answer this question various models are used: analytical (Danby 1985, Brauer 2019a, b, Murray 2002), stochastic (Miller 2012), and phenomenological (Fisman D 2014, Pell et al. 2018). A new study attempts to estimate the final epidemic size using the phenomenological logistic growth model and the classic susceptible-infected-recovered...

Incubation period of COVID-19

Wuhan pneumonia is an acute infectious disease caused by the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19). It is being treated as a Class A infectious disease though it was classified as Class B according to the Infectious Disease Prevention Act of China. Accurate estimation of the incubation period of the coronavirus is essential for the sake of deciphering dynamics of its spread....

Smoking is linked to severe COVID-19 infection

Mounting evidence suggests that, compared with nonsmokers, people who smoke cigarettes face a higher risk of developing severe complications and dying from COVID-19 infections. For instance, a study of more than 1,000 patients in China, published in the New England Journal of Medicine, found that smokers with COVID-19 were more likely to require intensive medical interventions than those who didn’t...

Estimation of risk factors for COVID-19 mortality

China CDC (Center for Disease Control and Prevention) has reported results of a descriptive exploratory analysis of all cases diagnosed until the 11th February 2020, presenting the epidemiologic curves and geo-temporal spread of COVID-19 along with case fatality rate according to some baseline characteristics, such as age, gender and several well-established high prevalence comorbidities. Despite this, a new study intends...

COVID-19 infection through eyes

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) is predominantly transmitted through direct or indirect contact with mucous membranes in the mouth or nose, but also the eyes, a new study points. The fact that exposed mucous membranes and unprotected eyes increased the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests that exposure of unprotected eyes to coronavirus could cause also a COVID-19 infection. Although...